Välja antud: 2016 Feb 13 1254 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
13 Feb 2016 | 111 | 013 |
14 Feb 2016 | 109 | 016 |
15 Feb 2016 | 107 | 030 |
Four C-class flares were reported in the past 24 hours, all in the NOAA AR 2497. The strongest flare was the C6.8 flare peaking at 17:21 UT yesterday. NOAA AR 2497 maintains beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect flaring activity on the M-level. The Earth is currently inside the trailing part of the ICME, with the solar wind speed around 380 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude around 10 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4). Late on February 14 - early on February 15 we expect the arrival of the ICME associated with the halo CME observed on the Sun on February 11. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 034, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 112 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
AK Wingst | 011 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 067 - Based on 23 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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