Välja antud: 2016 Feb 18 1239 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
18 Feb 2016 | 100 | 021 |
19 Feb 2016 | 098 | 012 |
20 Feb 2016 | 094 | 007 |
Six C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours, and one low C flare by new region 2503. The brightest flare was a C7.4 flare produced by AR 2497 which peaked at 18:13 UT on February 17. C flares (probability 95%) are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare (probability 45%), especially from AR 2497. A bright CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 18:12 UT on February 17, but is not expected to be geoeffective. The Earth is currently in a coronal hole high speed stream. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE has increased from about 520 km/s towards about 620 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has gradually decreased from 9 nT to current values of about 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 3 and 6), as a combined effect of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 18 under the influence of the high speed stream, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 19 and 20.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 057 |
10cm solar flux | 100 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 047 |
AK Wingst | 036 |
Estimated Ap | 037 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 039 - Based on 25 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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