Vaata laupäev, 23 september 2017 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2017 Sep 23 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 23 Sep 2017 until 25 Sep 2017
Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
23 Sep 2017076010
24 Sep 2017079022
25 Sep 2017081007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low, only a small B-class flare was recorded. Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active regions 2681) remained stable showing no flaring activity. Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA active region 2680) is currently turning over the west solar limb. The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at 06:03 UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect the solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible, a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will be able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at background level over the past 24 hours.

The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow with de speed lower than 400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT being mainly negative. The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal hole that has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 is expected to arrive at Earth today around midnight UT time.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and local K (Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-2 and 0-3 respectively. While the solar wind remained in its nominal condition, the local K (Dourbs) sowed an unexpected short duration maximum (K=4) at 22:00 UT due to the Bz components being mostly negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the fast solar will reach Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Sep 2017

Wolf number Catania022
10cm solar flux078
AK Chambon La Forêt012
AK Wingst008
Estimated Ap006
Estimated international sunspot number018 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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