Vaata laupäev, 16 detsember 2017 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 16 Dec 2017 until 18 Dec 2017
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
16 Dec 2017072015
17 Dec 2017072019
18 Dec 2017072007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. A filament eruption near 25S 40E was observed in GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA 304 A images around 12h UT on December 15. An associated CME was detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 images at 12:12 UT, with an estimated low speed of 284 km/s using COR2 A J-maps. This CME may arrive at Earth (probability: 20%), in which case it should arrive early on December 20 according to the drag based model. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR suddenly increased from about 345 to 370 km/s around 21:30 UT on December 15. Afterwards, it gradually decreased to current values around 340 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between about 0.5 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 16 and 17, with a slight chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2017

Wolf number Catania000
10cm solar flux072
AK Chambon La Forêt006
AK Wingst003
Estimated Ap003
Estimated international sunspot number000 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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