Vaata esmaspäev, 13 september 2021 arhiivi

SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2021 Sep 13 1237 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10 cm vool	Ap
13 Sep 2021	088	011
14 Sep 2021	085	012
15 Sep 2021	083	004

Bülletään

The solar activity was at very low levels with no C-class flaring over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2866 (Catania group 40) is decaying slowly and is expected to continue to decay. NOAA AR 2868 (Catania group 39) is on the process of rotating away from Earth view. NOAA AR 2869 also shows signs of decay. The chance of a C-type flare over the next 24 hours is estimated to be approximately 50%.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. The large eruptions detected both by LASCO-C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO-A on 12 Sept 15:00 UT are back-sided. A small eruption detected by COR2/STEREO-A on 12 Sept around 17:00 UT appears too slow to be be geo-effective but, there are not enough data yet for a reliable estimation.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h fluence for the greater than 2MeV electron flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicate the arrival of a weak ICME (as forecasted on the Sept 10). The solar wind speed gradually increased for 330 to 510 km/s. The total magnetic field varied between 6.4 and 10 nT, while the Bz varied -7.5 and 8.6 nT, but was mostly negative. The interplanetary magnetic field remain positive (directed away from the Sun) throughout the last 24 hours. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at this level for the most of part of the next 24 hours and then gradually return to a typical slow solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-3). They are expected to remain unsettled over the next 24 hours and possibly reach active levels.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 032, põhineb 19 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 12 Sep 2021

Catania Wolfi number	///
10cm päikesevoog	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Hinnanguline Ap	006
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv	049 - Põhineb 23 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

Kõik ajad UTC-s

<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele