Vaata kolmapäev, 10 november 2021 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2021 Nov 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2021	087	009
11 Nov 2021	087	008
12 Nov 2021	086	008

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was at moderate levels with a long duration M2-class flare (peak time 17:02 UTC on Nov 09th) from behind the west limb (presumably from NOAA 2891). The three numbered active regions on the visible disc showed very low levels of activity. NOAA 2893 remained a stable alpha, NOAA 2894 reduced its number of trailing spots and declined into magnetic type alpha. NOAA 2895 (beta), as well as the other two faint unnumbered regions in the western hemisphere remained inactive. Very low levels of flaring activity are expected for the next 24 hours with 30% chance for a C-class flare and a minor chance of M-class flaring from behind the west limb.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Following the M2-class flaring in the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced to several pfu, but remained under the minor storm threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has approached nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained at background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity slightly increased from 346 to 466 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak in the range of 0.49 to 6.6 nT with a minimum Bz component of -6.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly at background solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled following long intervals of negative Bz. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 038, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	044 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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