Vaata reede, 11 märts 2022 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 Mar 11 1316 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Mar 2022	118	015
12 Mar 2022	116	005
13 Mar 2022	114	006

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with multiple C-class flares, including a long duration C2.8-class flare with peak time 20:33 UT on March 10th. The flare was produced by the small and magnetically simple active region NOAA 2962 (alpha) and lasted from 18:15 UT on March 10th until early morning on March 11th. Several other C-class flares were produced from an active region behind the east limb and additional C-class flaring activity was observed from NOAA 2964 (beta), with a C2.2-flare peaking at 11:22 UT this morning. The solar disc continues to have the same six numbered active regions as yesterday with NOAA 2965 (beta) in the north-east quadrant becoming the largest active region with the highest number of sun spots. Despite its evolution this active region has remained inactive. NOAA 2966 and NOAA 2960 remained stable with magnetic type beta and NOAA 2957 remained a stable alpha. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with slightly increasing chances for M-class flaring.

A very slow CME associated with a filament eruption in the south-east quadrant in the late evening on March 9th was observed to lift off the solar surface early that night. It has been detected as a halo CME in STEREO COR2 chronograph data and could possible carry a minor Earth- directed component. The CME could arrive at the Earth early on March 14th. A full halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraph data. It was triggered by the C2.8-class flare in the evening of March 10th and is seen as a partial halo CME in STEREO COR2 data. The CME has a projected velocity of about 650 km/s and expected to catch up with the CME from March 9th and also arrive at Earth early on March 14th.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated this morning due to the long-duration C2.8-class flare, but remained at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhances, but still at nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold until 18:55 UT on March 10th, when it returned to background values. The greater than 2MeV electron flux is expected to remain under the 1000 pfu thresholds for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was recorded at moderate levels and is expected to return to nominal levels towards the end of the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicated the arrival of a mixture of ICMEs, potentially a mix of the CME emitted on March 5th and the expected CME, which launched late on March 6th/early March 7th. The solar wind velocity has varied in the range of 250 to 516 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values of 18 nT with a minimum Bz of -10 nT. The B field orientation was changing with the arrival of multiple ICMEs. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at close to background levels and the magnetic field, density and temperature are expected to return to normal levels by tomorrow.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active due to the expected influence of an ICME. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours while the ICME continues to affect the Earth’s environment. Return to normal conditions is expected on March 13th and further increase in geomagnetic activity with possible minor to moderate geomagnetic storms can be expected on March 14th with the foreseen arrival of more ICMEs. A coronal hole has crossed the central meridian today and might also contribute to the elevated geomagnetic conditions on March 14th, 15th and 16th.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	101
10cm solar flux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Kõik ajad UTC-s

<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele