Vaata pühapäev, 13 märts 2022 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 Mar 13 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Mar 2022	123	025
14 Mar 2022	120	044
15 Mar 2022	118	016

Bulletin

The solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with four low C-class flares. There are six active regions on the visible solar disc, including two simple monopole regions in the north-east quadrant, NOAA 2967, and another one in the south-east quadrant, which produced a low C1.4-class flare with peak time 00:14 UT on March 13th. NOAA 2966 has started to rotate over the west limb and is now classified as alpha. It produced a C1.4-class flare with peak time 06:15 UT this morning. Two more low C-class flares were produced by the plage region NOAA 2962. NOAA 2964 (beta), which produced M2.2 class flare on March 11th is still producing some high B-class flares from near the south-west limb, but is expected to rotated over the limb soon. NOAA 2960 (beta) has remained inactive and stable. By far the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc remains NOAA 2965, which has slightly grown in area and more than doubled its number of sunspots. It changed its underlying magnetic field configuration and is now classified as beta-gamma. Despite its development the active region has shown only very low levels of the flaring activity in the past 24 hours. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with some chances for M-class flaring from NOAA 2965.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was recorded well under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so in next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been at background slow solar wind conditions until 10am UT this morning, when the expected ICME from March 10th arrived. The solar wind velocity has increased from about 320 km/s to 580 km/s. The density and temperature have increased as well. The interplanetary magnetic field has reached a maximum value of 20.2 nT shortly after 10:15 UT this morning and registered a smooth rotation related to the CME flux rope around 10:45 UT. The Bz dropped to -11 nT and has remained mostly negative for several hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours under the influence of the ICME and with the potential arrival of another ICME, mixed with high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole by tomorrow morning.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet until the arrival of the ICME this morning, when locally unsettled and globally active conditions were registered. Mostly active conditions with minor storms and isolated moderate geomagnetic storms can be expected for the next 24 hours as the ICME passes through Earth. An isolated period with severe storm conditions is not likely, but cannot be excluded as the remaining part of the ICME arrives and potentially mixes with the other expected ICME and a high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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