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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 May 23 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 May 2022	165	011
24 May 2022	163	006
25 May 2022	160	005

Bulletin

There are eight active regions on the visible solar disc. Over the past 24 hours, NOAA AR 3014 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration) has remained fairly stable and produced C-class flares. The flare of the largest X-ray output has been the C5.2-class flare, peak time May 23 11:05UTC, from NOAA AR 3017, which has shown some small growth. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with M-class flares remain possible and a slight chance of X-class flares.

From the Coronal Mass Ejections observed, none is believed to have a significant impact in the coming days.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was just under the the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It can be expected to cross the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions reflect waning high speed stream influences. The magnetic field values fluctuated between 3 and 5nT, while Bz had values between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed remained fairly stable, reaching values of 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the positive sector (away from the Sun). A northern negative polarity coronal hole is presently on central meridian. Effects from its high speed stream can be expected from May 26. Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind to continue reflecting waning effects of high speed streams.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (Kp and K Dourbes=3). Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 149, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 22 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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