Vaata esmaspäev, 15 august 2022 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 Aug 15 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Aug 2022	127	006
16 Aug 2022	125	007
17 Aug 2022	124	026

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. Several C-flares occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was a C5.3 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3079, peaking at 14:00 UTC. NOAA AR 3078 has developed rapidly in the south of the solar disk and has produced a number of low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3076 produced a long duration C2.4 flare at 12:35 UT, associated with a filament eruption and a Type II radio signature. In the second half of the period NOAA AR 3076 has now begun to gradually decay. NOAA AR 3081 also produced a number of low level C-class flares and continued to grow. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flaring very likely and a chance for M-class flaring.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 from around 12:48 UTC on August 14 with a speed of around 650 km/s. The CME is related to an on disc filament eruption in the north-western quadrant and was associated to the long duration C2.4 flare and type II radio emission. The bulk of the CME is directed to the south-west but an impact at Earth is expected early on August 17. Two further filament eruptions with on disk dimming signatures were observed on August 15 at 04:20 UT and 08:00 UT, associated with NOAA ARs 3079 and 3078, respectively. These will be analyzed further as coronagraph data becomes available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels.

The Earth continues to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 450 and 512 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours solar wind speed is expected to decrease and slowly return towards slow solar wind conditions. From August 17, the solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced due to the combination of effects from the arrival of the CME of August 14 and the high-speed stream associated with a large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 14.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on Aug 15 and 16. Active to minor storm conditions are expected from August 17 due to a combination of a CME arrival and high-speed stream effects.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	123 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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