Vaata laupäev, 15 oktoober 2022 arhiivi

SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2022 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10 cm vool	Ap
15 Oct 2022	121	023
16 Oct 2022	119	007
17 Oct 2022	117	022

Bülletään

There are four active regions on the visible disc. With NOAA AR 3112 almost not visible anymore, the solar activity has declined markedly. This AR produced a C1.0 flare peaking at 05:22 UT. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

A filament eruption in the southwest quadrant created a CME first seen by LASCO-C2 at 23:12 UT on 14 October. The CME had an apparent angular width of 90 degrees with speeds close to 350 km/s and a possible Earth directed component, with possible arrival on 18 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth were marked by the ICME arrival corresponding to the 10 October CME, and by the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a small coronal hole (with negative polarity) in the northern hemisphere. The magnetic field intensity reached 18 nT, with Bz down to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is currently at 540 km/s (but still increasing) with interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 7 nT. For the next 24 hours similar conditions can be expected.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and minor storm conditions globally (Kp up to 5). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 042, põhineb 10 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 14 Oct 2022

Catania Wolfi number	///
10cm päikesevoog	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	014
Hinnanguline Ap	017
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv	078 - Põhineb 19 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

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