Vaata laupäev, 15 oktoober 2022 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 15 Oct 2022 until 17 Oct 2022
Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
15 Oct 2022121023
16 Oct 2022119007
17 Oct 2022117022

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc. With NOAA AR 3112 almost not visible anymore, the solar activity has declined markedly. This AR produced a C1.0 flare peaking at 05:22 UT. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

A filament eruption in the southwest quadrant created a CME first seen by LASCO-C2 at 23:12 UT on 14 October. The CME had an apparent angular width of 90 degrees with speeds close to 350 km/s and a possible Earth directed component, with possible arrival on 18 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth were marked by the ICME arrival corresponding to the 10 October CME, and by the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a small coronal hole (with negative polarity) in the northern hemisphere. The magnetic field intensity reached 18 nT, with Bz down to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is currently at 540 km/s (but still increasing) with interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 7 nT. For the next 24 hours similar conditions can be expected.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and minor storm conditions globally (Kp up to 5). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 042, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux121
AK Chambon La Forêt030
AK Wingst014
Estimated Ap017
Estimated international sunspot number078 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
14092009440951----M1.355/3112
14095109550959----M1.355/3112

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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