Vaata neljapäev, 19 jaanuar 2023 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2023 Jan 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jan 2023	219	011
20 Jan 2023	221	016
21 Jan 2023	221	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with two M-class flares and several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a M1.7 flare, peaking at 10:12 UTC on Jan 19, associated with active region NOAA 3196 (beta class), that has recently rotated onto the disk. The second notable flare was a M1.1 flare, peaking at 04:03 UTC on Jan 19, also associated with NOAA AR 3196. NOAA AR 3193, that was inactive, will rotate over the west solar limb in the next hours. NOAA ARs 3190 and 3192 are the most complex (beta-gamma class) regions and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) directed towards the south-west was seen in LASCO C2 imagery from 13:36 UTC on January 18. This is determined to be a back-sided event and no impact at Earth is expected. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed fluctuated around 430 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 6 nT to 9 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -8 to 5 nT). The solar wind associated with the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which began to cross the central meridian on Jan 17 is expected to cause a further enhancement from Jan 20. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days, with the possible further enhancement due to HSS and a possible CME arrival on Jan 19.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next days, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours due to arrival of the CME and HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 218, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	209
10cm solar flux	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	188 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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