Vaata laupäev, 21 jaanuar 2023 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2023 Jan 21 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 21 Jan 2023 until 23 Jan 2023
Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
21 Jan 2023219015
22 Jan 2023217016
23 Jan 2023217006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a C7.3 flare, peaking at 22:47 UTC on Jan 20, associated with active region NOAA 3192 (beta-gamma class). NOAA ARs 3190 and 3192 remained the most complex (beta-gamma class) regions and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The remaining active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares

A filament eruption in the southwestern quadrant was observed on Jan 20 around 12:30UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 12:24UTC onwards is directed to the southwest. Another filament eruption from NOAA AR 3190 occurred shortly after it at around 13:47UTC, related to a C5.3 class flare. The associated faint CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 14:48UTC onwards, is directed to the south. The bulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance for a glancing blow on Jan 23 around 18:00UTC. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were slightly disturbed. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 390 km/s to 530 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 4 nT to 9 nT. The Bz ranged between -8 to 7 nT. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole has started to transit the central meridian on Jan 21 and may influence solar wind conditions starting from Jan 24. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity coronal hole.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA-Kp=4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods during next hours due to influence of the HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 197, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania268
10cm solar flux218
AK Chambon La Forêt017
AK Wingst007
Estimated Ap006
Estimated international sunspot number216 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Kõik ajad UTC-s

<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele

Viimane uudis

Toeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!

Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!

Anneta SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Toetage SpaceWeatherLive meie kaupadega
Vaadake meie kaupa

Fakte kosmose ilmast

Viimane X-loide28/03/2025X1.1
Viimane M-loide01/04/2025M2.5
Viimane geomagnetiline torm27/03/2025Kp5 (G1)
Plekivabasid päevi
Viimane päikese plekivaba päev08/06/2022
Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv
veebruar 2025154.6 +17.6
aprill 2025152.5 -2.1
Viimased 30 päeva130.7 -17.9

See päev ajaloos*

Päikesepursked ehk loited
12001X1.77
22017M8.35
31999M6.2
42001M3.57
52017M1.81
DstG
11979-168G4
21960-151G3
31992-105G2
42004-104G2
51994-103G3
*alates 1994

Sotsiaalvõrgustikud