Vaata neljapäev, 3 august 2023 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2023 Aug 03 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Aug 2023	173	018
04 Aug 2023	173	015
05 Aug 2023	172	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with three M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.7 flare which peaked at 14:52 UTC on Aug 02. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA AR 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Only few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed but all of them were slow and mostly narrow and no Earth-directed components were identified.

Krooniauk

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Päikesetuul

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 320 km/s to 390 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 10 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01, hits the Earth.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at moderate to normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 156, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	207
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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