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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Jan 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jan 2024	177	007
26 Jan 2024	172	008
27 Jan 2024	170	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare associated with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 45) yesterday 20:58 UTC. For the next 24 hours the activity is expected to drop to low levels, as NOAA AR 3561 is likely to produce only C-class flares, although there is still the possibility of an isolated M-class flare.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from 22 Jan 10:36 UTC. It is associated with a filament eruption close to the solar meridian and is estimated to arrive later today. A partial halo CME, that can also been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images as lunched 23 Jan 04:24 UTC, is likely to be geo-effective and arrive at the second half of tomorrow. A CME seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from 22 Jan 22:00 UTC is associated with an M1 flare from the solar location S17W30. It is a relatively narrow CME, but is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's environment towards the second half of tomorrow.

Päikesetuul

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions of the last 24 hours resemble the slow wind regime. The SW speed very gradually dropped from 470 to 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has fluctuated between 1 and 7 nT and its North-South component varied between -6 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun almost exclusively during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by a glancing blow from the passing of a nearby Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2-) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 0 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to become unsettled in the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was well below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	117
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	121 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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