Vaata neljapäev, 8 veebruar 2024 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Feb 08 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Feb 2024	186	007
09 Feb 2024	184	011
10 Feb 2024	182	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M1.4 flare, peak time 18:05 UTC on Feb 7th, produced by NOAA AR 3576 (beta- gamma-delta), which is the largest and most complex active region on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3575 (beta-delta) started to rotated over the south-west limb and has produced only isolated C-class flaring. A returning active region has now rotated onto disc from behind the south-east limb, so far not showing any significant activity. NOAA AR 3573 has now rotated over the west limb, while NOAA 3564 (beta) and NOAA 3565 (beta) are approaching the limb. NOAA AR 3574 (beta) has produced isolated C-class flaring. The remaining active regions have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next days with possible further M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3576.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the large filament eruption in the northern hemisphere on Feb 6th was remodelled. A minor impact from it could be expected at Earth on Feb 10th and Feb 11th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the continuous influence of a high speed stream with velocity around 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, returned to nominal conditions with a maximum value of 4.9 nT. The Bz component was weak with a minimum value of of -3.7 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to start declining towards slow solar wind background later on Feb 8th and Feb 9th. A rather weak glancing blow ICME arrival might possibly reach Earth on Feb 9th bringing slight enhancements in the solar wind speed. Another low-impact glancing blow arrival related to the Feb 6th filament eruption might be expected on Feb 10th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Feb 8th. Isolated active levels are less likely, but might be reached on Feb 9th and Feb 10th related to possible glancing blow ICME arrivals and a possible shock arrival from the Feb 6th CME.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of fast and strong eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3576.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	240
10cm solar flux	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	158 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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