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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Feb 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Feb 2024	174	008
23 Feb 2024	176	010
24 Feb 2024	178	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with two X-class flares and one M-class flare. The largest flare was a X1.8-flare, with peak time 23:07 UTC on February 21 and the second largest flare was a X1.7-flare, with peak time 06:32 UTC on February 22. Both flares were associated with NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma- delta). A M1.6-flare, with peak time 00:14 UTC on February 22 was produced by a yet unnumbered active region behind the east-limb on the southern hemisphere of the Sun. There are currently 2 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex region. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has been stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible and a low chance for an X-class flare.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A south-east partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 data around 16:12 UTC on February 21th. The eruption was related to an activity behind the east limb. No impact on Earth is expected. A second westward partial halo CME was detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 18:36 UTC on February 21th. The CME is associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 & 193 at 17:37 on February 21th in the north-west quadrant of visible solar disk. The CME has an estimated plane-of-sky speed of around 450 km/s although the bulk of the ejection will miss Earth, a glancing blow arrival is possible on February 25th. A third south-east CME was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 00:24 UTC on February 22th, associated with the M1.6-flare peaking at 00:14 UTC on February 22.

Krooniauk

Two negative polarity coronal holes have started to cross the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun at high latitude and the other in the Southern half at low latitude.

Päikesetuul

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 286 km/s to 377 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 5 nT and 8 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away the Sun) with periods on the negative sector. In the next 24-hours slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) with some unsettled periods over the past 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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