Välja antud: 2024 Mar 17 1232 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
17 Mar 2024 | 144 | 007 |
18 Mar 2024 | 146 | 007 |
19 Mar 2024 | 148 | 007 |
There are five active regions visible on the solar disk. They all have simple beta or alpha magnetic field configuration and produced minor C-class flaring. The main activity in the last 24 hours has been observed from active regions behind the east limb, that will rotate into view in the next hours. The strongest was an M3.5 flare peaking at 16:35 UTC on 16 March, from a region not yet visible, located behind the east limb. As these regions rotate into view, we expect more M-class and possible X-class flares in the next 24 hours.
There was a partial halo CME (angular width about 180 degrees) directed towards the south, first seen at 03:24 UTC by LASCO C2. This CME originates from a filament eruption in the southern hemisphere. Since the filament was located close to the disk center, an ICME may arrive to the Earth on 20-21 March (a better estimation will be given when more data become available).
Solar wind: The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 350 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 1 and K_BEL up to 1). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
The 10 MeV proton flux (measured by GOES-18) has come below the 10 pfu threshold, but remains elevated. It is expected that it will go back to low levels in the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 144 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 005 |
AK Wingst | 002 |
Estimated Ap | 002 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 058 - Based on 23 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 1622 | 1635 | 1644 | ---- | M3.5 | --/---- | |||
16 | 2127 | 2155 | 2211 | ---- | M1.1 | --/---- |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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