Vaata teisipäev, 19 märts 2024 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Mar 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Mar 2024	167	008
20 Mar 2024	164	017
21 Mar 2024	165	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3615 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22) produced both of those flares, first the M6 yesterday at 19:19 UTC and then the M1 today at 02:29 UTC. NOAA AR 3614 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 22), 3615, and 3616 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 19) produced C5 flares during the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours more M-class flaring activity is expected particularly from NOAA AR 3614 and 3615, with a chance of an X-class flare.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Päikesetuul

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at yesterday 19:00 UTC. The disturbance could be a component from the eruption of 15 Mar 02:12 UTC that took place at the western solar limb. The SW speed increased from 300 to 400 km/s as a result of the arrival, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) raised from 2 to 11 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -11 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the arrival of the CME and then fluctuated between the two directions. The effects of the CME have now subsided, however, another CME arrival is expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) as a result of the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) yesterday 19:00 UTC. In the next 24 hours, they are expected to remain at unsettled levels and possibly increase to active or minor storm levels as another CME is expected to arrive.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is also a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	147
10cm solar flux	177
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	125 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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