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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Jun 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jun 2024	167	006
14 Jun 2024	169	003
15 Jun 2024	171	003

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.2 flare peaking at 22:46 UTC on June 12, associated with NOAA AR 3711 (beta). There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk, all with magnetic configuration beta except NOAA AR 3708 (alpha). NOAA AR 3702 is currently rotating behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3715 and 3716 have rotated on disk from the north-east limb. NOAA AR 3714 has emerged in the north-east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance of M-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A faint halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected around 16:12 UTC on June 12 in SOHO/LASCO-C2. It is most likely backsided and it is not expected to have an impact on Earth. A faint partial halo CME was first detected around 23:32 UTC on June 12 in SOHO/LASCO-C2. It is most probably associated with the M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3711. It may have an Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing, pending the availability of coronagraph data. A filament eruption was detected in the south-east quadrant around 12:24 UTC on June 12 in SDO/AIA 304 data. It may have an Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing, pending the availability of coronagraph data. A filament eruption was detected in the north-east quadrant around 06:30 UTC on June 13 in SDO/AIA 304 data. This event will be analysed when data become available.

Krooniauk

An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. The associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Päikesetuul

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 327 km/s to 374 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours but still near the threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	118 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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