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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Jun 20 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jun 2024	197	012
21 Jun 2024	197	017
22 Jun 2024	197	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at low levels besides the number of complex sunspot groups currently visible of the disc, with only multiple C-class flares. The larger flare was a C7.2 flare peaking at 09:39 UTC from the originated from NOAA active region 3719. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a small chance of X-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images over the last 24 hours.

Krooniauk

A large north midlatitude coronal hole with negative polarity, which has crossed the central meridian on June 18 is still facing Earth.

Päikesetuul

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the high-speed stream from the equatorial and positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed decreased from around 575 km/s to 463 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -5 nT and 5 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected returned to a slow solar wind speed today, then the high-speed stream from the large midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in the next 24-36 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle with short a period of active conditions observed by the local stations in Belgium (NOAA Kp 0-2, K BEL 1-4) in response to the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole and the Bz component being negative for a longer period. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Then active conditions to minor storm may be observed in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole in about 24-36 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 167, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	154 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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