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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Jul 11 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jul 2024	210	005
12 Jul 2024	205	005
13 Jul 2024	200	020

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and multiple low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.4-flare, peak time 12:04 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region contributed to most of the flaring activity on disc. An isolated M1.3-flare, peak time 04:23 UTC on July 11, was produced by the newly numbered region NOAA AR 3745 (beta) and some more flaring activity was produced by regions NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (beta). The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with 70% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 21:24 UTC on July 10. The CME is related to a prominence eruption near the north-east limb. Due to the location of the source region no significant impact on Earth is expected, though potential arrival of a shock front is undergoing analysis. At a similar time another narrow southward CME was observed followed a filament eruption to the south of NOAA AR 3738. Despite its location on the central meridian this second CME is rather narrow and travels mostly southward suggesting no significant Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Krooniauk

An equatorial to mid-latitude positive-polarity coronal hole continues to reside on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from this coronal hole is expected to arrive to Earth on July 13.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 350 km/s and 416 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.3 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.6 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions might register weak enhancements on July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions with possible isolated active periods are anticipated for July 11 and July 12. Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor storm levels are expected on July 13th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 173, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	176 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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