Välja antud: 2024 Aug 18 1236 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
18 Aug 2024 | 235 | 008 |
19 Aug 2024 | 240 | 010 |
20 Aug 2024 | 230 | 010 |
Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M2.41-flare, with peak time 02:04 UTC on August 18 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3790 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3793 (beta) NOAA AR 3794 (beta) have emerged on the north-west quadrant of the visible disk. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.
In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 13:30 UTC on August 17. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 7 nT to 17 nT, the solar wind speed increased from 324 km/s to 430 km/s, and the solar wind density at the shock rose from 2 particles/cm3 to 12 particles/cm3. The ICME is likely associated with a partial coronal mass ejection observed on August 14. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until it switched to the negative section around 16:30 UTC on August 17. Solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime and are expected to remains so over the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7-) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6) between 15:00 UTC on August 17 and 01:00 UTC on August 18 after which they reduced to quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 209, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 230 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 048 |
AK Wingst | 035 |
Estimated Ap | 036 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 202 - Based on 20 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 1122 | 1144 | 1156 | S16W23 | M1.1 | SF | --/3785 | ||
17 | 2137 | 2148 | 2157 | S09E47 | M1.1 | 1 | --/3790 | ||
17 | 2157 | 2206 | 2214 | ---- | M1.4 | --/3790 | |||
18 | 0150 | 0204 | 0212 | ---- | M2.4 | --/3784 | |||
18 | 0407 | 0416 | 0431 | ---- | M1.1 | --/3784 | |||
18 | 0715 | 0730 | 0744 | N18W52 | M1.2 | SF | --/3784 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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