Välja antud: 2024 Aug 21 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
21 Aug 2024 | 235 | 008 |
22 Aug 2024 | 235 | 011 |
23 Aug 2024 | 235 | 010 |
Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.3-flare, with peak time 17:08 UTC on August 20 2024, from NOAA AR 3785 (beta). There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 and 3790 are the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a low chance of X-class flares.
There was an eruption seen in AIA/SDO 193 on August 20 at 17:30 UTC from NOAA AR 3793, but no associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has yet been observed in the available coronagraph images. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind at the Earth remained slow over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained around 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 6nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -6nT. Small enhancements of the solar wind speed may occur on August 22 due to a possible high-speed-stream arrival associated with the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on August 19.
Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3- and K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions may reach active levels on the 22 August, due to a possible high-speed stream arrival.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 215, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 219 |
10cm solar flux | 244 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 018 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 223 - Based on 28 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 | 1706 | 1708 | 1712 | S13W81 | M1.3 | SF | 50/3785 | ||
21 | 0553 | 0602 | 0611 | S02E41 | M1.1 | S | 58/3796 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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