Vaata teisipäev, 29 oktoober 2024 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Oct 29 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Oct 2024	258	011
30 Oct 2024	262	004
31 Oct 2024	264	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. There are twelve numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. The strongest activity was an M4.2-flare with peak time 16:28 UTC on Oct 28th associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878), which has increased its complexity and is now classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. This region remained the main contributor to the observed flaring activity over the past 24h. Another moderate flaring activity, an M1.2-flare with peak time 14:44 UTC on Oct 28th, was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869), which also evolved into magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 296 (NOAA Active Region 3874) has similarly evolved into magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872) has retained the same classification. Despite their complexity these latter regions have not exhibited any activity above low C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with 95% chances of M-class flaring and 25% chances for X-flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by LASCO/C2 to lift off the south-west solar quadrant around 13:48 UTC on Oct 28th. This is considered to be a back-sided event with no expected impact on Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been under the waning influence of the ICME arrival from Oct 28th. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly increased, peaking at 9.9 nT, with a mildly elevated Bz reaching a minimum value of -7.9 nT. The solar wind velocity was on a decreasing trend, varying between 417 km/s and 556 km/s. The B field phi angle remained entirely in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return towards background slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours and remain so in the upcoming days.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours with a small chance of an isolated active period under the waning ICME influence. Mostly quiet conditions with possible isolated unsettled intervals are expected thereafter.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at moderate radiation storm levels (S2) due to an ongoing proton event. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease towards minor radiation storm levels (S1) by the end of Oct 29th and further decrease bellow the 10 pfu warning threshold on Oct 30th, pending no new radiation events are prompted by the solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 233, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	332
10cm solar flux	255
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	251 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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