Vaata teisipäev, 10 detsember 2024 arhiivi

SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2024 Dec 10 1231 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 cm vool	Ap
10 Dec 2024	174	008
11 Dec 2024	176	014
12 Dec 2024	178	010

Päikese aktiivsed piirkonnad ja pursked

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with three M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M6.4 flare peaking at 06:48UTC on December 10, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA Active Region 3922, magnetic type currently undetermined). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) and SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912), both of magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912) is currently rotating behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 334 (NOAA Active Region 3921, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the southeast quadrant, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917). SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA active region 3922) has rotated on disk in the southeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable and a small chance for X-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 imagery, lifting off the southeast limb around 07:05 UTC on December 10. The CME is most likely associated with the M6.4 flare that peaked at 06:48UTC on December 10 from SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA Active Region 3922). Due to the location of its source region, no impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Krooniauk

The positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, SIDC Coronal Hole 82, has now crossed the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may still arrive at Earth starting from December 11.

Päikesetuul

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVER) were initially enhanced over the last 24 hours, most likely under the influence of the high-speed stream from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 82). The solar wind conditions are now gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values have decreased from around 540 km/s to 415 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 10 nT to 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT to 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with further enhancements still possible in case of a high-speed stream arrival starting from December 11.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4) between 21:00 UTC on December 09 and 00:00 UTC on December 10 and have now decreased to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 17:00 UTC and 19:00 UTC on December 10 and have now decreased to quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet conditions, with a small chance of active intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Prootoni voo tasemed

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Elektronivoog geostatsionaarsel orbiidil

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 136, põhineb 03 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 09 Dec 2024

Catania Wolfi number	194
10cm päikesevoog	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	021
Hinnanguline Ap	020
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv	114 - Põhineb 09 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

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