Välja antud: 2024 Dec 20 1232 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
20 Dec 2024 | 179 | 007 |
21 Dec 2024 | 181 | 007 |
22 Dec 2024 | 193 | 007 |
A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. There have been four M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest one was an M3.8 flare peaking at 15:34 UTC on 19 December, coming from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928, beta magnetic field configuration). The other M-class flares came from the same AR and one from SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, beta gamma magnetic field configuration), which is rotating out of view over the west limb. More M-class flares can be expected and X-flares are possible in the next 24 hours.
A full halo CME was observed at 18:16 UTC on 19 December by LASCO C3 (after a data gap of several hours). The source of this CME is believed to be backsided and will thus not arrive to the Earth.
The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 460 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). Similar conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today, but it has probably missed the Earth.
Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today and create disturbed conditions, but it has probably missed the Earth.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 117 |
10cm solar flux | 175 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 016 |
AK Wingst | 014 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 121 - Based on 09 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 | 1021 | 1038 | 1057 | S19W72 | M1.6 | SF | 50/3924 | ||
19 | 1527 | 1534 | 1539 | ---- | M3.8 | --/3928 | |||
19 | 1856 | 1900 | 1904 | ---- | M1.7 | --/3928 | |||
20 | 0720 | 0726 | 0735 | ---- | M2.1 | 50/3924 | |||
20 | 1115 | 1118 | 1122 | ---- | M2.5 | 59/3928 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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