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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Dec 23 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Dec 2024	223	007
24 Dec 2024	223	007
25 Dec 2024	223	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been at moderate level, with five M-class flares detected across several sunspot groups. The largest event was an M9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3058), which peaked on December 23 at 11:12 UTC. This flare originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932), the most magnetically complex and dynamically evolving region observed. This group, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, has shown significant growth over the past day and produced multiple M-class flares, including the M9.0 event. Additional M-class flares were attributed to SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Regions 3906 and 3928) and SIDC Sunspot Group 344 (NOAA Active Region 3930). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate level in the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of further M-class flares and a potential for X-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

Over the past 24 hours, multiple coronal mass ejections have been observed. However, no components have been clearly identified as Earth-directed.

Krooniauk

The relatively small coronal hole, identified as SIDC Coronal Hole 84, located at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere with positive polarity, crossed the central meridian today.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind at Earth reached speeds of 700 km/s due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from SIDC Coronal Hole 83, a small equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity that crossed the central meridian on December 22. The solar wind speed peaked at 700 km/s before decreasing to approximately 550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5-7 nT, with the southward component fluctuating between -7 nT and 7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline over the next 24 hours. Although multiple coronal mass ejections have been observed in recent days, none have been clearly identified as Earth-directed. However, there remains a low probability of a glancing blow to Earth around December 25, associated with the faint southward-directed coronal mass ejection originating from SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932) and observed at 00:21 UTC on December 22 by LASCO C2.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels globally, with Kp values up to 4, and remain unsettled locally, with K_BEL values reaching up to 3. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has been gradually increasing since approximately 17:00 UTC on December 20. Although it remains below the event threshold and is unlikely to exceed it, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be ruled out, given the heightened activity and complexity observed in several sunspot groups.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, while it went slightly above it in GOES 16. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 212, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	223
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	178 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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