Vaata reede, 3 jaanuar 2025 arhiivi

SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 03 1234 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 cm vool	Ap
03 Jan 2025	202	019
04 Jan 2025	194	024
05 Jan 2025	185	016

Päikese aktiivsed piirkonnad ja pursked

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 1 M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was an X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3184), peaking on January 03 at 11:39 UTC. This was produced by newly numbered SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) which rotated onto disk over the east solar limb during the period and had previously produced C-class flaring activity. The other most active region was SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) which produced an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3178) with peak time January 02 at 17:40 UTC. Six new regions were numbered over the period, the largest of which being SIDC Sunspot Group 359 and 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3946 and 3947 respectively). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Krooniauk

SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82 (positive polarity coronal holes in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively) continue to traverse the central meridian.

Päikesetuul

The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly enhanced under the waning CME influence, with values between 7 and 16 nT. The solar speed gradually decreased over the period, reducing from 550 km/s to around 450 km/s. Bz was mostly positive with a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to gradually return to nominal conditions on January 03, further enhancements are likely from early on January 04 due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 60 and the glancing blow CME arrival.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions (NOAA Kp 4, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for January 03 and 04, with isolated minor storm intervals possible on January 04 due to possible combined high speed stream and CME arrivals.

Prootoni voo tasemed

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

Elektronivoog geostatsionaarsel orbiidil

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 208, põhineb 12 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 02 Jan 2025

Catania Wolfi number	///
10cm päikesevoog	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	020
Hinnanguline Ap	023
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv	182 - Põhineb 13 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

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