Vaata teisipäev, 7 jaanuar 2025 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 07 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Jan 2025	172	008
08 Jan 2025	170	012
09 Jan 2025	170	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. There are 10 numbered sunspot groups on the visible solar disc with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) remaining the most complex and most active one. The region is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and was growing over the past 24 hours, producing an M4.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3226) with peak time at 16:24 UTC on January 06. Other notable regions on the visible solar disk are SIDC Sunspot Group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944) and SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945), both classified as magnetic type beta. The remaining active regions have been predominantly simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with likely M-class flares and 15% chances for X-class flaring.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Krooniauk

Two positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 85 and SIDC Coronal Hole 60) are partly residing at the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream (HSS) may arrive at Earth on January 09 and January 10.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole and a transient arrival around 04:30 UTC on January 07, possibly the expected glancing blow from the partial halo CME from January 04. The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly elevated with values mostly below 10 nT and weak Bz down to -6 nT. The solar wind speed increased up to 633 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with a rotation towards the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours under the waning influence of the transient solar wind and decrease towards background levels on January 08. Further mild enhancements are possible with anticipated new high speed stream arrivals on January 09 and January 10.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with slight chances for isolated minor geomagnetic storm.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has decreased towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to be at nominal levels over the 24 hours with slight chances for new small enhancements.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the threshold for extended periods over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 150, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	165 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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