Vaata pühapäev, 12 jaanuar 2025 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jan 2025	155	013
13 Jan 2025	154	011
14 Jan 2025	154	019

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was a C1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3257), peak at 14:37 UTC on January 11, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (magnetic type beta-gamma) remaining the largest and most complex region. A couple of small and simple new active regions were identified on disc, but remain unnumbered. A new region (SIDC Sunspot Group 373) has emerged near N20W32 and was classified as magnetic type beta. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with 40% chances for M-class flaring.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly enhanced under the mild influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 9.3 nT with a minimum Bz value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed decreased to below 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect mostly slow solar wind conditions on January 12 - January 13, pending any possible impacts from the faint southward CME related to the previously reported filament eruption from January 09. New enhancements in the solar wind are expected with an anticipated high speed stream arrival on January 14.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the waning influence of an ongoing mild high speed stream (HSS) with minor storm levels possible, in case of any possible ICME arrival related to a filament eruption and associated faint southward CME from January 09. Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storms are expected for January 14 with an anticipated new HSS arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels in the next 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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