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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Feb 24 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Feb 2025	211	014
25 Feb 2025	210	008
26 Feb 2025	210	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the past 24 hours with an impulsive X2.0-flare, start time 19:22 UTC, end time 19:34 UTC, peak time 19:27 UTC on Feb 23. The X-flaring was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 410 (NOAA Active Region 4001) from the west limb. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified with SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000) being the most complex region on the visible solar disc. It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma- delta and has produced an impulsive M3.3-flare with peak time 07:02 UTC on Feb 24. Another very notable and rather large region is SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998). It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma and was responsible for multiple C-class and a low M-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with very likely M-class flares and 25% chances for X-flaring.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A fast partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a projected velocity close to 1900 km/s was first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 19:48 UTC on Feb 23. The eruption is related to an X2.0 flare with peak time 19:27 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 410 (NOAA Active Region 4001) from behind the west limb. The CME is estimated to be back-sided and is not expected to arrive at Earth. Another fast wide westward CME was visible in LASCO/C2 data at 06:12 UTC on Feb 24, accompanied by activity at the west limb as well as an on disc dimming and a related filament eruption in the north-west quadrant. Preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the CME is headed off the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis is ongoing to estimate any potential impacts at Earth.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions, possible related to an expected arrival of the CME from Feb 20. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 15.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.6 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 300 and 400 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched orientation from the positive sector to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly disturbed levels over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods related to the ongoing solar wind disturbance at Earth.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has shown gradual enhancements possibly related to the fast coronal coronal mass ejection first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 06:12 UTC on Feb 24. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to exhibit further increase with some chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels over the 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 156, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	210
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	180 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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