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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 1999 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 179 Emesso alle 2200Z il JUN 28 1999
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-27 alle 2100Z-28
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8611 (S25E47) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE DISK TODAY AND PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C6/1F AT 1934Z. THIS GROUP
EXHIBITED VERY BRIGHT PLAGE ALL DAY AND IS GROWING STEADILY. REGION
8598 (N22W25) IS STILL THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT
COULD ONLY MUSTER ONE SUBFLARE, IN SPITE OF A DELTA SPOT NEAR REGION
CENTER. THIS GROUP SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF MAGNETIC FLUX AND IS
CLEARLY ON THE DECLINE. A PARTIAL HALO CME WAS REPORTED BY LASCO
THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNATURE IN EIT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR DISK. THESE EVENTS WERE ALSO TIME COINCIDENT
WITH YESTERDAY'S M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8592 AT N23W25.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8611 ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
REGIONS 8602 (N18E08), AND 8603 (S15E18) MIGHT ALSO CONTRIBUTE,
GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW GROWTH TREND IN THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-27 alle 2100Z-28
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE CONDITIONS DECLINED TO QUIET AROUND 28/0000Z.
AROUND 28/0400Z THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY BEGAN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 900 KM/S BY 0510Z. THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RESPONDED WITH A PERIOD OF MAJOR STORM FROM
0300-0600Z, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM PERIOD FROM
0600-0900Z. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SHOWED SOME MILDLY
NEGATIVE BZ FROM 0400-0600Z BUT RETURNED TO NOMINAL LEVELS
THEREAFTER. IN RESPONSE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ALSO CALMED TO QUIET
TO UNSETTLED FROM 0900Z THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
SPEED AND VERY LOW DENSITY SEEN WITH THIS SOLAR WIND EVENT, IT IS
MOST LIKELY THAT ACE OBSERVED THE RAREFACTION REGION BEHIND THE
PARTIAL HALO CME OF 24 JUNE, WHICH WAS KNOWN TO BE DIRECTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE SUN-EARTH LINE.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ON THE SECOND DAY.
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS
BECAUSE OF THE PARTIAL HALO CME OF THE 27TH.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle JUN del 29 alle JUL del 01
Classe M | 55% | 50% | 45% |
Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Protone | 10% | 10% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 28 JUN 197
Previsto 29 JUN-01 JUL 180/175/170
Media di 90 Giorni 28 JUN 144
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUN 015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN 020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL 012/018-010/012-012/015
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 29 JUN al 01 JUL
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 25% | 15% | 20% |
Tempesta minore | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 01% | 05% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 25% | 15% | 20% |
Tempesta minore | 05% | 05% | 15% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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