Emesso: 2013 Oct 08 1228 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
08 Oct 2013 | 114 | 010 |
09 Oct 2013 | 117 | 007 |
10 Oct 2013 | 120 | 016 |
Solar activity has been rather low in the past 24 hours, with a C2.3 flare occurring in NOAA AR 1856, on October 07, 1540 UT (peak time). It doesn't appear to be associated with a CME. A filament eruption occurred on October 8, after 0800 UT, close to the North-East limb. It is associated with a CME, which is not geoeffective. We expect eruptive conditions (C flares possible) for the next 48 hours, as AR 1856 is still capable of an isolated C-class flare. To a lesser extent, NOAA AR 1861 might also produce a isolate C-class event. Geomagnetic activity is currently very low and is expected to remain so for the next 48 hours. Unsettled to active conditions are foreseen by the end of October 10, due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on October 6, combined with the influence of a small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 066, based on 14 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 136 |
10cm solar flux | 112 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 006 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 052 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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