Emesso: 2013 Nov 06 1246 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
06 Nov 2013 | 151 | 009 |
07 Nov 2013 | 154 | 005 |
08 Nov 2013 | 157 | 006 |
Since the X3.3 flare yesterday, the NOAA AR 1890 (no Catania number yet) produced only C-class flares, the strongest one being the C8.6 flare peaking at 08:51 UT today. Nevertheless, this active region still keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect further strong flaring from this region, primarily on the M-level. Another X-class flare is also probable. Given that the NOAA AR 1890 is approaching the solar central meridian, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 04 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 149 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 088 - Based on 09 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05 | 1808 | 1813 | 1817 | ---- | M1.0 | 110 | --/---- | III/2 | |
05 | 2207 | 2212 | 2215 | S12E46 | X3.3 | 1B | 400 | --/1890 | III/3V/3II/3IV/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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