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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 08 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Protoni solari

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Jan 2014	245	014
09 Jan 2014	250	099
10 Jan 2014	250	052

Bulletin

The largest flare of the past 24 hours was an X1.2 flare peaking on January 7 at 18:31 UTC. The flare was originating from the western part of the active region NOAA AR 1944. The event was associated with a halo CME, metric type II radio burst, EUV wave and a large dimming region. The shock speed from radiospectrographs from Sagamore Hill was estimated at 1064 km/s. An asymmetric halo CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 with first measurement at 18:24 UTC. The main direction of propagation is to the southwest. The event was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C3, STEREO A/COR2 and (partly in) STEREO B/COR2 imagery data. Based on time/height measurements of SOHO/LASCO data the initial CME speed is estimated at 2353 km/s. Analyses based on stereoscopy provide an estimate of around 1900 km/s. Using the drag-based propagation model (DBM) with a different speed values at 20 solar radii of 1800 to 2300 km/s, the arrival time of this CME is estimated on January 9 between 2:00 and 7:00 UTC. In addition, also four C flares and one M flare occurred during the past 24 hours. Besides Catania sunspot region 98 (NOAA AR 1944), also Catania sunspot region 94 (NOAA AR 1947) was responsible for this flaring activity. On January 8 an M3.6 flare erupted from Catania sunspot region 94, peaking at 3:47 UTC. This event was associated with a narrow CME with first measurement in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 4:36 UTC, which is not expected to be geo-effective. The event was combined with a metric type II radio burst with an estimated shock speed of 697 km/s (estimate from Learmonth). The second proton event of this week is still in progress. Very high proton flux values were reached; with a maximum of about 950 sfu for >10MeV protons; near 50 sfu for >50MeV protons and near 4 sfu for >100MeV, during the past few hours. The likelihood for more flares during the next 48 hours remains high; 99% for C flares, 75% for M flares and 50% for X flares. The proton flux is expected to further decline, but may rise again in case of more M or X flares. A shock in the solar wind data was observed on January 7 around 14:20 UTC. Solar wind speed, density and temperature show an abrupt increase, as well as the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind speed reached a value of 450 km/s, then was declining and currently has a value of 350 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field has achieved a maximum value of 9 nT. The Bz-component is fluctuating between -8 and +4 nT. The shock is probably related to the arrival of the CME that erupted on January 4 at 21:25 UTC. The estimated NOAA Kp reached a maximum value of 3. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the above mentioned CME of January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until the morning of January 10 under clear sky conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	193
10cm solar flux	237
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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