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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Feb 13 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2014	160	008
14 Feb 2014	162	007
15 Feb 2014	162	020

Bulletin

There are currently eight numbered sunspot groups on the solar disc, and the most active one is the Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974). The strongest of five M-class flares reported during past 24 hours was the M2.1 flare, peaking at 15:51 UT of February 12. The flare was associated with the faint partial halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:24 UT. From the currently available data, it seems that this CME is Earth directed. The expected arrival of the CME is February 18. We do not expect strongly disturbed geomagnetic conditions (K index maximum 4) due to its faint structure and slow projected plane of the sky speed of 300 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The partial halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 13:25 UT on February 12, was associated with the C7.9 flare (peaking at 12:34 UT) originating from the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 1979). The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and propagated with the projected plane of the sky speed of about 550 km/s (reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward of the Sun Earth line. Therefore, the arrival of only an associated CME-driven shock wave at the Earth can be, possibly but not very probably, expected on late February 15. The Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974) is still growing fast and has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Therefore, we expect C-class and M-class flares, and possibly also an isolated X-class flare. Due to position of this sunspot group, a major CME from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The ACE data show the arrival of a shock-like discontinuity at 08:52 UT this morning. The magnetic field shows rapid increase in magnitude (from 5 to 10 nT) simultaneously with the solar wind increase (from 350 to 400 km/s). Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is again down to 5 nT. The solar wind speed is at the moment about 360 km/s. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours and active to minor storm conditions on February 15 due to arrival of CMEs from February 11 and February 12.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	210
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	116 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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