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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Feb 19 1316 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Feb 2014	151	030
20 Feb 2014	150	011
21 Feb 2014	149	010

Bulletin

Numerous minor C-class flares in past 24h, mainly from NOAA ARs 1974 and 1982. This last AR produced the strongest one (C3.0) peaking at 02:01 UT, this region has potential for M-class flares. NOAA AR 1977 has decayed and did not produce any flare in past 24h. There were two partial halos CMEs since yesterday. The first one starting at 23:48 UT on February 18 (LASCO-C2), related to a filament eruption, directed towards the northeast and will most likely not arrive to the Earth. The second one, first seen at 05:00 UT seems to be backsided but there's not enough data yet to confirm. A shock arrived to ACE at 03:10 UT. The speed jumped from 400km/s to 470km/s and the magnetic field intensity from 9nt to 18nT. The shock was driven by a magnetic cloud, probably related to a prominence eruption on February 16 (no clear CME was detected). Prior to the shock, Bz was pointing south during the evening of February 18. Due to the low temperatures present in this region, this southward field seems also to be part of a magnetic cloud, probably related to a faint eruption on February 14. This situation led to a geomagnetic storm with Kp reaching 6 between 03:00 UT and 09:00 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at mostly unsettled values today and quiet afterwards, until the expected arrival of the CME from February 18, late on February 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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