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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Apr 12 1147 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 12 Apr 2014 until 14 Apr 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
12 Apr 2014140048
13 Apr 2014145020
14 Apr 2014150011

Bulletin

Four C-class flares were observed originating from Catania sunspot region 24 (NOAA AR 2035), the largest one being a C5.3 peaking at 15:01 UT, April 11. The C5.3 flare was associated with an Eastward directed CME (first measurement of LASCO/C2 at 14:48 UT) with angular width of about 100 degrees and speed of 568 km/s as estimated by CACTus. At most a shock could arrive at Earth around 12h UT on April 14. More C-class flares are expected during the next 48 hours, especially from Catania sunspot region 24. Also an isolated M-class flare is possible. ACE observed an increase in the magnitude of the IMF from 7 to 11 nT, with a negative Bz currently reaching -9 nT. This resulted in active to minor storm magnitude conditions during the first half the UT day (local K=4 at Dourbes and even NOAA Kp=5). Solar wind speed has gradually declined to 350 km/s. Unsettled to maximally major storm conditions are expected due to currently negative Bz and the arrival of the CH high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Apr 2014

Wolf number Catania083
10cm solar flux138
AK Chambon La Forêt031
AK Wingst011
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number047 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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