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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Apr 17 1326 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Apr 2014	180	013
18 Apr 2014	184	007
19 Apr 2014	188	005

Bulletin

Eleven sunspot groups were reported by NOAA today. NOAA ARs 2035, 2036, and 2037 (Catania numbers 24, 25, and 26 respectively) maintain the beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the M1.0 flare peaking at 19:59 UT yesterday in the NOAA AR 2035 (Catania number 24). The flare was associated with an EIT wave and a weak coronal dimming, but the associated CME was narrow and is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect further flaring activity on the C-level, especially in the NOAA ARs 2035 and 2037 (Catania numbers 24 and 26 respectively) as well as in the NOAA AR 2042 (no Catania number yet) that yesterday appeared from behind the east solar limb, with a good chance for an M-class event. Since yesterday evening the Earth is situated inside a solar wind structure with an elevated interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (occasionally up to 10 nT). It may be a weak ICME or the compression region on the flank of an ICME that missed the Earth. The solar origin of this structure is not clear. The north-south magnetic field component Bz was not strong, so no significant geomagnetic disturbance resulted (K index stayed below 4). Currently the solar wind speed is around 380 km/s and the IMF magnitude is around 8 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled (K index up to 3) geomagnetic conditions, with active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) possible, but unlikely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 145, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Apr 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	139 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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