Emesso: 2014 May 21 1227 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
21 May 2014 | 121 | 006 |
22 May 2014 | 121 | 016 |
23 May 2014 | 121 | 007 |
There were two C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C2.3 flare released by NOAA AR 12071, peaking at 01:38 UT on May 21. LASCO C2 and C3 and STEREO COR2 A and B observed a bright CME probably associated to this flare. There is a slight chance for a glancing blow from this CME on May 24. In the next 48 hours, more C flares are likely, especially from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, and 12066. Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE gradually declined from 350 to 320 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on May 21 and 23. As an effect of an expected sector boundary crossing to a negative phi angle (toward) and the high speed stream associated to a weak southern coronal hole, there is a chance for active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) on May 22.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 17 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 089 |
10cm solar flux | 117 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 061 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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