Emesso: 2014 May 23 1241 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
23 May 2014 | 113 | 021 |
24 May 2014 | 116 | 013 |
25 May 2014 | 116 | 007 |
There were four low C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 12065 with peak time at 04:58 UT on May 23. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, 12065, and 12066) and for M flares around 25%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12065. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE was around 350 km/s until it suddenly jumped to about 500 km/s around 3h30 UT on May 23. This was probably due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Meanwhile the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had increased from 5 nT to about 12 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) due to the IMF's positive Bz angle. As an effect of the high speed stream, quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) periods are expected on May 23 and 24. Quiet conditions are expected on May 25.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 14 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 111 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 019 |
AK Wingst | 013 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 047 - Based on 22 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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