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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jun 13 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jun 2014	174	007
14 Jun 2014	168	006
15 Jun 2014	160	007

Bulletin

Solar activity is still high with five M-class flares reported during last 24 hours. The strongest observed flare was the complex, long duration M3.1 flare (peaking at 22:16 UT) on June 12. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 76 (NOAA AR 2085) and was associated with an EIT wave and type II radio burst (gives indication on the shock wave speed of about 1700 km/s). The associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 22:12 UT. The angular width of the CME was about 200 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed was 600 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line and possibly, but not very probably the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave could arrive at the Earth in the evening of June 15. The M2.7 flare (peaking at 10:21 UT) on June 12 was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 10:48 UT. This CME will not arrive at the Earth. We expect C-class, M-class and X-class flares in the coming hours. Due to the, close to the west solar limb, position of the Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind (350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet. The glancing blow associated with the halo CME from June 10 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, and it might result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	221
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	135 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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