Emesso: 2014 Jun 16 1230 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
16 Jun 2014 | 127 | 007 |
17 Jun 2014 | 130 | 004 |
18 Jun 2014 | 135 | 006 |
The strongest flare during the past 24 hours was the M1.0 flare peaking at 00:01 UT today in the NOAA AR 2087 (Catania number 81). The photospheric magnetic field of this sunspot group decayed to the beta configuration, so we do not expect this group to produce significant flaring activity anymore. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruptive arcade indicating the eruption of a CME. However, no CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO due either to the narrow angular extent of the CME, or to the confinement of the eruption to the low corona. In any case, no significant geomagnetic impact is expected. We expect flaring activity to continue on the C-level, especially in the NOAA AR 2089 (Catania number 82) that now has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, and in still unnumbered active regions that just appeared from behind the south-east solar limb. An M-class flare is possible but not very likely. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 130 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 054 - Based on 17 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 | 2350 | 0001 | 0017 | ---- | M1.0 | 81/2087 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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