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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 08 1353 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 08 Oct 2014 until 10 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
08 Oct 2014125015
09 Oct 2014124008
10 Oct 2014120006

Bulletin

Solar activity is very low, with only three C-class flare reported during last 24 hours. The strongest flare was the C1.6 flare (peaked at 16:00 UT on October 07) originating from the not yet classified active region at about N15 E25. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect solar activity to remain low with occasional C-class flares. ACE solar wind data indicate possible arrival of the sector boundary or ICME (solar origin is not yet understood). The sector change was observed at about 05:30 UT this morning. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating and it had few intervals of negative value (up to - 8 nT). Simultaneously to the longest interval of negative Bz (about 4 hours) the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field had reached the value of about 10 nT. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT and the solar wind speed is still low with the value of about 350 km/s. Due to negative intervals of Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field we have currently active geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes). We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 059, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania104
10cm solar flux125
AK Chambon La Forêt007
AK Wingst006
Estimated Ap005
Estimated international sunspot number052 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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