Emesso: 2014 Oct 11 1347 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
11 Oct 2014 | 115 | 009 |
12 Oct 2014 | 112 | 007 |
13 Oct 2014 | 113 | 007 |
Just few sunspot groups are currently visible on the solar disc. The only C-class flare observed during last 24 hours was the long duration C3.0 flare (peaked at 16:47 UT), on October 10. Concurrently with the flare which occurred in between two active regions, NOAA AR 2184 and 2182, eruption of a large filament (situated at about S30 W45) was observed. The associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:12 UT. The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and was propagating with the projected speed of about 400 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible in the evening of October 14. We expect only occasional C-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is about 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic filed is still fluctuating with the current magnitude of about 9 nT. Due to the long negative interval of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (with the value of about -7 nT) we had unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes) this morning. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 121 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 025 - Based on 24 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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