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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 11 1347 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 11 Oct 2014 until 13 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
11 Oct 2014115009
12 Oct 2014112007
13 Oct 2014113007

Bulletin

Just few sunspot groups are currently visible on the solar disc. The only C-class flare observed during last 24 hours was the long duration C3.0 flare (peaked at 16:47 UT), on October 10. Concurrently with the flare which occurred in between two active regions, NOAA AR 2184 and 2182, eruption of a large filament (situated at about S30 W45) was observed. The associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:12 UT. The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and was propagating with the projected speed of about 400 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible in the evening of October 14. We expect only occasional C-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is about 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic filed is still fluctuating with the current magnitude of about 9 nT. Due to the long negative interval of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (with the value of about -7 nT) we had unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes) this morning. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic condition.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux121
AK Chambon La Forêt010
AK Wingst008
Estimated Ap008
Estimated international sunspot number025 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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