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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 16 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 16 Oct 2014 until 18 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
16 Oct 2014130007
17 Oct 2014130007
18 Oct 2014130007

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, two high C flares were released by the backside region close to the east limb that produced both M flares on October 14 (probably this region is the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The brightest flare reached its peak value of C7.7 at 7:37 UT on October 16. The CME associated with the M1.1 flare of October 16 (first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14) was a full halo CME, with main bulk propagating towards the southeast at an estimated speed of 923 km/s as measured on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares are possible, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced both M flares. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind was nominal, with speeds observed by ACE varying between about 365 and 460 km/s, and current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 8 nT, with current values around 6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 16, 17 and 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania134
10cm solar flux126
AK Chambon La Forêt010
AK Wingst012
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number067 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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