Emesso: 2014 Oct 16 1303 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
16 Oct 2014 | 130 | 007 |
17 Oct 2014 | 130 | 007 |
18 Oct 2014 | 130 | 007 |
During the past 24 hours, two high C flares were released by the backside region close to the east limb that produced both M flares on October 14 (probably this region is the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The brightest flare reached its peak value of C7.7 at 7:37 UT on October 16. The CME associated with the M1.1 flare of October 16 (first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14) was a full halo CME, with main bulk propagating towards the southeast at an estimated speed of 923 km/s as measured on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares are possible, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced both M flares. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind was nominal, with speeds observed by ACE varying between about 365 and 460 km/s, and current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 8 nT, with current values around 6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 16, 17 and 18.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 134 |
10cm solar flux | 126 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 010 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 067 - Based on 23 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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