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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 29 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 29 Oct 2014 until 31 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
29 Oct 2014150009
30 Oct 2014140007
31 Oct 2014130006

Bulletin

Solar activity has slightly reduced in the past 24 hours, with three M-class and two C-class flares. Activity mainly originated from Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). A narrow CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery (first measurement at October 28 20:24 UT), with a projected speed of 388 km/s (CACTus estimate). The CME is travelling to the northeast of the Sun-Earth line. The CME is believed to be associated with activity at the backside of the Sun and as such no effect on Earth is expected. Catania group 88 still has potential to produce strong flares up to the X-level. Due to it's location close to the West limb, a strong eruption may result in a rise of the proton flux. Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind, with solar wind speed decreasing from 450 km/s to currently around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a magnitude of about 5 nT with fluctuating Bz values. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are observed and are expected to continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux167
AK Chambon La Forêt018
AK Wingst012
Estimated Ap013
Estimated international sunspot number073 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

28 1354 1406 1423 S18W72 M1.6 SF 29 ///2192
DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
29060308200852----M1.0--/----
29095410011006----M1.288/2192

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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