Emesso: 2014 Oct 31 1250 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
31 Oct 2014 | 135 | 012 |
01 Nov 2014 | 130 | 018 |
02 Nov 2014 | 130 | 017 |
During the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity was at the C-level, with a C9.7 as strongest flare. The background irradiation is decreasing as Catania group 88 (NOAA 2192) is rounding the west limb. Flares originated from Catania groups 88, 98 and 3 (NOAA 2192, 2200 and 2201 respectively). The C6.9 flare, originating from Catania group 3, peaked at 13:12 UT on October 30 and C2.3 flare, originating from Catania group 98, peaked at 15:03 UT. Both flares were accompanied by radio type II bursts and narrow eastward propagating CMEs. These CMEs will not have any impact on Earth. Due to the position of Catania group 88, we retain the warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed, observed by ACE, increased from 350 to 450 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field went up in magnitude to about 12 nT and also the temperature increased. A northern coronal hole (extending from N10 to N55) has passed the central meridian and the associated high speed stream might arrive at the end of November 2. Quiet to active conditions are expected, with limited chances for minor storm conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 15 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 153 |
10cm solar flux | 140 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 080 - Based on 21 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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