Emesso: 2014 Dec 15 1229 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 Dec 2014 | 166 | 013 |
16 Dec 2014 | 166 | 022 |
17 Dec 2014 | 166 | 017 |
The Sun released one M flare and ten C flares during the past 24 hours. The M1.6 flare (which peaked at 19:33 UT) and almost all C flares were produced by NOAA AR 2242. In the next 24 hours, C flaring is expected, with probability for an M flare around 40%. Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE increased from about 430 to 480 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) increased from about 6 to 10 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on December 15, as well as on December 16 and 17 when we expect the arrival of a high speed stream associated with an equatorial coronal hole.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 06 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 166 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 018 |
AK Wingst | 011 |
Estimated Ap | 011 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 109 - Based on 14 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 1925 | 1933 | 1939 | S19E44 | M1.6 | SF | --/2242 | VI/2II/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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